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First Step To GM Being Publicly Offered

On Wednesday, General Motors filed the first paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which will allow GM to be publicly offered. While specifics on the number and cost of shares have not been decided, the company said all of the shares would be sold by the U.S. Treasury and other shareholders: the Canadian government, the United Auto Workers and GM's former creditors.

For taxpayers to get paid back all their money, analysts estimate that GM's new stock price has to translate into a $70 billion market value for the entire company. The overall health of the economy will be key and the deal could be delayed if there is a major event that causes a downturn in the market.

Francis Gaskins, veteran IPO analyst, predicts, "Taxpayers will take a 50% loss." That's because Gaskins and many other analysts assume investors won't value GM higher than the $42 billion market capitalization of healthier Ford Motor. Ford and GM had about the same first-half revenue, but Ford profit was twice GM's.